Home
Life, Liberty, Property
Less Serious
History Links |
Three
Myths of the Great Depression
Burton
Folsom, Jr.
The following
is abridged from a speech delivered in July 2004The Great
Depression of the 1930s was in many ways the defining economic event of
the 20th century. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt used the
atmosphere of crisis created by the Depression to implement a series of
government programs known as the New Deal, which caused radical
centralization of federal power. For decades historians romanticized the
New Deal, and only recently have scholars begun to peel away the layers
of mythology surrounding that era. Three of those myths seem the most
pervasive and damaging.
Myth
Number One: The New
Deal helped get us out of the Great Depression.
In fact, the New Deal was an inevitable economic failure. Roosevelt’s
formula of substituting government programs for a normal business
recovery had no chance of relieving the high unemployment. FDR relied on
extracting tax dollars from individuals and corporations to fund
government programs, such as the Works Progress Administration (WPA),
which hired workers to pick up trash, cut down trees, and build roads,
bridges, and schools. The jobs Roosevelt thought he was creating were a
mirage. They merely transferred jobs from the productive private sector
to the inefficient public one.
Henry Hazlitt, a free-market writer and journalist, pointed out in his
1946 classic, Economics in One Lesson: “For every public job
created by [a] bridge project a private job has been destroyed somewhere
else. We can see the men employed on the bridge. We can watch them at
work. . . . But there are other things that we do not see, because,
alas, they have never been permitted to come into existence. They are
the jobs destroyed by the $10 million taken from the taxpayers.”
With the dramatic rise in government spending on public works, farm
subsidies, and various relief programs, the top income tax rate
skyrocketed from 24 percent in 1929 to 79 percent in 1935. In 1941 FDR
even proposed raising the top rate to 99.5 percent on all income over
$100,000 (but ended up settling for 90 percent). Not surprisingly,
entrepreneurs were stifled and refused to invest and have their capital
confiscated. Unemployment under the New Deal never dropped below 14
percent and averaged over 17 percent.
As the Great Depression persisted, even Treasury Secretary Henry
Morgenthau admitted that the New Deal had been a failure. On May 6,
1939, he confessed, “We are spending more than we have ever spent before
and it does not work. . . . We have never made good on our promises. . .
. I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much
unemployment as when we started. . . . And an enormous debt to boot!”
Myth
Number Two: The New
Deal was a political success as well as an economic success.
To the contrary, the New Deal was a grand economic failure and only a
qualified political success. This may surprise some because it seems
counterintuitive in two ways. First, since FDR was elected to four terms
and always with Democratic congresses, his economic programs seem to
have had wide support. Second, if the New Deal was as damaging to the
economy as I suggest, why did he achieve such clear political success
over a long period of time?
In 1936, Roosevelt was up for reelection and he carried all but two
states against his Republican challenger, Alf Landon. This amazing
result is often emphasized by historians. What is less well known is the
fact that in early 1936 Roosevelt was behind in the Gallup polls and
even trailed in his own private polls. In February 1936, Emil Hurja,
Roosevelt’s personal pollster, concluded that if nominated Landon could
beat Roosevelt were the election held that month. High unemployment was
plaguing the president and the Supreme Court had recently struck down
the Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) and the National Recovery
Administration (NRA), two linchpins of the New Deal. Also, the
Republicans had recently captured two congressional seats in open
elections in Rhode Island and Michigan. In addition, the New York state
legislature—where Roosevelt began his political career—had just swung
over to the Republicans. This should not be surprising—the New Deal had
not ended the Great Depression and voters were responding accordingly.
However in 1936 the president developed a strategy that swamped the
Republicans. It can be described in three words: subsidies for votes. He
would spend record amounts of tax dollars on programs that would give
people a vested interest in voting for his re-election. Gary Dean Best,
in his excellent book Pride, Prejudice,and Politics, outlines
Roosevelt’s tactic of blitzing key election districts with federal
funds. For example, he met with Henry Wallace, the agriculture
secretary, and gave the following order, “Henry, through July, August,
September, October and up to the 5th of November I want cotton to sell
at 12 cents [a pound]. I do not care how you do it. That is your
problem. It can’t go below 12 cents.”
When the WPA had spent all its money, and was faced with throwing people
out of work on October 1, Roosevelt ordered Henry Morgenthau not to let
anyone be laid off. As Morgenthau recalled Roosevelt’s words, “he
doesn’t give a God damn where they get the money.” With a Gallup poll
showing relief workers going 5-1 for Roosevelt over Landon, the
president had strong incentives to transfer as much wealth as possible
from the private to the public sector.
Landon and fellow Republicans all over the country were perplexed over
how to combat the “subsidies for votes” strategy. If they attacked
Roosevelt’s programs, he would ask what they would do differently. If
they said, “End the programs,” then the many Americans who were becoming
addicted to the programs would protest and call the Republicans
heartless, uncaring, and selfish. If Landon said he would continue the
programs in different ways, then why should they switch over to his
side? With Roosevelt they had government jobs. Why take chances with the
Republicans? The subsidy-for-votes strategy helps explain the paradox of
how the New Deal could be such an economic calamity for the nation and
such a political triumph for Roosevelt.
Myth
Number Three:
Roosevelt was widely respected.
This is partly true. Roosevelt received thousands of fan letters each
week and his picture was on the wall in perhaps millions of American
homes. He had widespread adulation, especially from those who received
his federal subsidies. But among reporters, policy makers, fellow
politicians, and even his own friends Roosevelt was widely disrespected.
His popularity was often superficial, and seemed to decline as people
close to him came to know him better.
One thing that bothered his friends was FDR’s ego. Hugh Johnson, the
head of the NRA, said of his boss, “He seeks complete subservience. He
thrives on adulation and submission.” Hiram Johnson, the Republican
Senator who bolted his party in 1932 and 1936 and publicly supported
Roosevelt, said of the president, “He is drunk with power.” Frances
Perkins, the secretary of labor, listened to her boss almost every week
and concluded, “Roosevelt never understood the point of view of the
business community.” Many of Roosevelt’s friends seemed to fear
reprisals if they told anyone what they really thought of him, and
confided their true feelings in private diaries. Harold Ickes, the
secretary of the interior, confided in his diary, “It is distressing to
hear from so many quarters expressions that the President’s word cannot
be relied upon.”
The number of people in the country who believe this seems to be
growing. Unfortunately, based on my own experience, I regret to say that
there are occasions when he does seem to regard his word lightly. I
regret to say this about my Chief, the President of the United States,
but unfortunately it is true.” Roosevelt picked Raymond Moley, a
Columbia professor, to be a Brain Truster and to write speeches, which
Moley did during the president’s first term. After one lengthy
discussion with FDR, Moley wrote in his diary how Roosevelt had
“launched into a denunciation of bankers and businessmen and said that
every time they made an attack on him, . . . he gained votes and that
the result of carrying on this sort of warfare was to bring the people
to his support. . . . I was impressed as never before by the utter lack
of logic of the man, the scantiness of his precise knowledge of things
that he was talking about, by the gross inaccuracies in his statement,
by the almost pathological lack of sequence in his discussion. . . . In
other words, the political habits of his mind were working full steam
with the added influence of a swollen ego. My deliberate impression is
that he is dangerous in the extreme. . . .”
Finally, Henry Morgenthau, perhaps FDR’s best friend, kept a diary in
which he recorded his regular visits and conversations with the
president. In many entries, Morgenthau expresses concern with the
president’s ego and his desire to centralize power in his own hands.
After one such visit, Morgenthau wrote, “He pictures himself as being
called in as a consultant of the various nations of the world. He said,
‘Maybe I can prescribe for their ailments. . . . For example, I would
tell England that she had too many people and she should move out ten
million of her population. I would take a look at each country and, of
course, when we made them disarm we would have to find new work for the
munition workers in each country and that is where this international
cartel would come in and your job would be to handle the finances.’”
Only when
we begin to strip away these three myths will we be able to see the New
Deal and the rise of the imperial presidency as a dark period in
American history. In fact
during the 1930s, the American economy would have been far better off if
there had not been the New Deal. |